Liverpool’s Midfield Void Is Now a Betting Problem You Can Exploit

Liverpool lost 2-1 at Newcastle and the scoreline tells you almost nothing.

The xG was 2.73 to Liverpool and 1.43 to Newcastle. On another day, Liverpool win that game comfortably. But they didn't, because they keep gifting opponents goals through the same structural flaw that has haunted them since Fabinho packed his bags in 2023.

For bettors, that flaw is something worth paying very close attention to right now.

The Same Problem, Different Game

Both Newcastle goals came from Liverpool losing the ball in advanced positions with nobody covering the space behind. Four minutes in, Ryan Gravenberch was caught in possession in the middle of the park, one pass later Anthony Elanga was celebrating. The second was nearly identical in nature, Gravenberch dispossessed again, Yoane Wissa racing through the centre completely unchallenged.

This is not a one-off. This is a pattern.

Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai are both naturally attack-minded players. When Andoni Iraola sets up with a two-man pivot and Florian Wirtz as a ten, all three of those midfielders drift into dangerous areas when Liverpool are in possession. The space they leave behind is enormous, and any team with the pace and directness to exploit it will cause serious problems.

Look at the numbers from Sunday. Szoboszlai made zero tackles and won just three of ten duels. Gravenberch also failed to make a single tackle. When Alexis Mac Allister came on as a like-for-like replacement for Wirtz, he immediately made two tackles and won four of five duels. The difference in defensive output was stark.

Iraola tried to frame it as a collective issue rather than a personnel one, and there's a fair argument to be made there. But when your manager is having to pull off your most technically gifted attacker just to stabilise your midfield, something structural isn't working.

What This Means for the Betting Markets

Liverpool remain one of the strongest sides in the Premier League in terms of creating chances. That 2.73 xG against Newcastle is evidence of that. But they are consistently vulnerable to conceding through fast transitions, and that vulnerability creates some very specific betting opportunities.

First, Both Teams to Score markets. Liverpool's attacking quality means they'll create chances in most games. Their defensive fragility means opponents who can counter with pace will threaten them. Against teams with quick forwards and a willingness to press high and transition fast, BTTS at short odds becomes a reliable lean.

Second, look at Asian handicap markets when Liverpool are heavy favourites. If the opposition has the athleticism to hurt them on the break, the handicap line can shift value towards the underdog covering. Liverpool can dominate possession and xG and still concede soft goals. That keeps games tighter than the odds often suggest.

Third, first goal markets. Liverpool have shown they can be caught cold early. Elanga's goal came in the fourth minute. Bettors who back Liverpool opponents to score first in games where the opposition has pace up front are playing with a genuine structural edge right now.

Will They Fix It Before the Window Closes?

Liverpool's transfer priority, even after Sunday, remains wide attacking players rather than a defensive midfielder. Iraola is understood to be content with Wataru Endo, Trey Nyoni and James McConnell as backup options in the middle of the park.

That tells us the flaw is likely to stay for the foreseeable future.

Adam Wharton has been on Liverpool's radar but Crystal Palace won't sell. Martin Zubimendi went to Arsenal instead. The club tried to sign Moises Caicedo two years ago. Each time an opportunity to fix this position has appeared, it has slipped through their fingers.

Gravenberch was exceptional under Arne Slot last season and the title win papered over the cracks. Florian Wirtz's arrival this summer shifted the focus entirely towards attacking quality. But those cracks are wider now and teams at the top level will keep finding them.

Our Read on Liverpool This Season

Liverpool will win a lot of games this season. Their attacking depth is extraordinary and Iraola has already shown he can set up a team to create chances in high volume.

But they are not a side to back blindly in every market. In fixtures against teams with direct forwards and the pace to counter, particularly away from Anfield, Liverpool offer real value to bettors willing to look at them from both ends of the pitch.

The midfield problem hasn't been solved. Until it is, the goals against column will keep ticking over, and for anyone watching the markets closely, that's a gift that keeps on giving.