Premier League Week Two: The Picks We’d Back With Our Own Money

Week one is done and the Premier League is already throwing up some spicy storylines. Arsenal looked sharp. Brentford embarrassed Spurs. Manchester United looked dreadful against a promoted side. Now week two is here, and there are some genuinely interesting betting angles across the fixtures.

Let's get into what we think, where the value might be, and which games look like traps dressed up as certainties.

Arsenal Are the Real Deal and Villa Look Vulnerable

The Monday night fixture at Villa Park is the headline act of the week, and in our view, it's also the clearest bet on the card.

Arsenal were excellent against Coventry in week one. Fluid, physical, relentless. And before anyone says 'it was just Coventry', the manner of that performance tells you plenty about how this squad is set up under Mikel Arteta. They pressed high, moved fast, and never looked like letting up.

Aston Villa, on the other side, are a team in transition. They lost heavily to Brighton in week one and the summer has seen key players depart. Ollie Watkins is still there, but he looked isolated and frustrated last week without the right support around him. Emery is a superb tactician and we'd never completely write his side off, but the gap between these two squads right now is real.

We'd back Arsenal to win this one comfortably. The Asian handicap on Arsenal giving a one-goal start looks like a smart line.

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace: Haaland Wakes Up

Erling Haaland blanked in week one. That's basically a sign the apocalypse is coming, except it's not, because it's just one game and he's still Erling Haaland.

City were a little disjointed against the run of play in their opener, with Mark Guehi filling in an unusual role and some of their combinations looking rusty. The Palace game at Selhurst Park gives them a chance to find rhythm.

Crystal Palace were poor away to Everton and there are question marks over whether they'll lose more players before the window closes. That kind of uncertainty in a squad is poisonous for form.

This is one where we think City get a routine win. Haaland scoring anytime is always worth a look, especially coming off a quiet week one. The 1-3 scoreline feels about right and City on the Asian handicap away from home still looks like value given the gap in quality.

The Ipswich vs Manchester United Trap Game

This is the fixture we'd be most cautious about.

On paper, United at home should be beating a promoted Ipswich side. But United were genuinely dreadful in week one against Hull. Flat, uninspired, and short on ideas. Two promoted sides in their opening two games was supposed to be a kind start. Instead, it's starting to feel like a slow-motion crisis.

Ipswich are a well-organised side under Gary O'Neil and they've got pace on the break. They won't roll over.

We still think United find a way to win this, because losing back-to-back Premier League openers to two promoted clubs would be remarkable even by their recent standards. Michael Carrick will set up defensively solid and grind it out if he has to. But laying United on the Asian handicap, or taking Ipswich on the double chance, is not as crazy a bet as it sounds. If you're building an accumulator and you need a result, treat United as a risk, not a banker.

Our Picks for the Week

Here's where we stand on the Premier League week two fixtures we'd actually put money on.

Arsenal to win at Villa with a handicap is our strongest play of the week. The squad depth, the form, the pressure on Villa after a rough start, it all points the same way.

City to beat Palace and Haaland to score anytime adds up nicely as a same-game combo. Liverpool at home to Nottingham Forest is another we like, though Forest will be better organised than their week one showing suggested.

Sunderland at home to Fulham is a game where the Stadium of Light crowd could be a real factor. We think Sunderland sneak a win there, especially with Fulham shipping goals already this season.

The one game we'd leave alone is Leeds versus Brentford. Both sides are unpredictable, Brentford are in ridiculous form having hammered Spurs and then thrashed Birmingham, but Leeds are hard to break down at Elland Road. The draw at a reasonable price is the only angle worth considering, but even then, we'd rather put our stake somewhere else.

Week two of the Premier League always separates the teams who opened well from those who just had a lucky result. Based on what we've seen so far, Arsenal are going to make that point loudly on Monday night.