Ancelotti First, Guardiola Second: What Italy’s Manager Hunt Tells Us About the Azzurri’s Ambition

Italy's search for a new national team manager has turned into one of the most talked-about coaching sagas in world football right now. Three successive World Cup failures will do that to a nation that once set the global standard for tournament football.

The Ancelotti Revelation Changes the Story

Paolo Maldini's admission that Italy approached Carlo Ancelotti before opening talks with Pep Guardiola is the most interesting wrinkle in this story. It tells us the FIGC's thinking was rooted in loyalty and familiarity first. Ancelotti is a former Italy international, a former AC Milan team-mate of Maldini himself, and one of the most decorated club managers of his generation. Going to him first made emotional sense.

The problem is Ancelotti isn't available. He's contracted to Brazil until 2030, and despite a last-16 exit at the World Cup, the Brazilian federation kept him on. Italy had to move on quickly.

The Guardiola Gamble and the Salary Problem

Guardiola is now the headline name in this pursuit, and on paper it's a genuinely exciting idea. Six Premier League titles, three FA Cups, five League Cups and a Champions League during his decade at Manchester City. The man builds football cultures, not just squads.

But there's a real obstacle here. Reports suggest Guardiola is looking for around 20 million euros a year. Italy were apparently offering half that. National federations rarely pay club-level wages, and Italy asking for exceptions to be made signals how serious they are about landing him. Whether that seriousness translates into actual money is a different question.

From a betting perspective, Guardiola landing the Italy job is the kind of market that moves fast on rumour and slows down on reality. The salary gap is a genuine barrier, not just negotiating noise.

The Backup List Is Actually Decent

If Guardiola walks away, Italy aren't left with nothing. Antonio Conte knows the job, knows Italian football inside out, and has a track record of dragging average squads above their ceiling. Roberto Mancini, who won Euro 2020 with Italy before his messy exit, knows the dressing room dynamics better than almost anyone.

Andrea Pirlo is an interesting name for the future but feels too early right now. His managerial career hasn't yet justified the level of trust a national job demands.

For our money, Conte is the most credible fallback option and probably the one the markets should be pricing more seriously. He's available, he's motivated, and he's managed Italy before in spirit even if not in the official role. He gets results in high-pressure environments.

Our Read on How This Ends

Italy have failed to qualify for three World Cups in a row. That context matters enormously. This isn't a federation hiring from a position of strength, it's a federation that knows it needs a genuine reset and is swinging for the biggest names to signal that intent.

We think Guardiola is unlikely to take the job at the salary Italy can realistically offer. The gap between what he earned at City and what a national federation pays is too wide, and Guardiola has never seemed drawn to international management in the way some coaches are.

That points toward either a prolonged negotiation that eventually falls apart, or a pivot to Conte as the sensible, battle-hardened solution. If you're looking at the Italy manager market, Conte at a generous price is where the value sits right now.

Italy need someone who can qualify for a World Cup and then compete in one. Right now, they can barely do the first part.