Isak at the Crossroads: Why Liverpool’s Season Hinges on Iraola Solving His £125m Puzzle

Liverpool have drawn their first two Premier League games, dominated possession in both, and still found themselves chasing the game each time. At the centre of it all sits a £125m striker who looks like he's playing for a team he's only just met. Because, in many ways, he still is.

The Most Expensive Misfit in the Premier League Right Now

Alexander Isak is not a bad footballer. Let's get that out of the way immediately. Forty-four Premier League goals in his final two seasons at Newcastle is not a number that liars produce. Only Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Ollie Watkins have outscored him in England across that period. The quality is real.

What is also real is that Isak looks completely disconnected from this Liverpool side. Six touches in the first 45 minutes against Nottingham Forest. One accurate pass. Zero shots. For a man who cost more than any player in Premier League history, those are numbers that make very uncomfortable reading for anyone who backed Liverpool in the pre-season title markets.

The goal he scored after the break matters, don't get us wrong. He timed the run brilliantly to meet Gakpo's delivery, and a striker who scores despite doing next to nothing for 45 minutes is showing predatory instinct. But one goal in 14 top-flight appearances last season tells the broader story. And after two draws to open this campaign, Liverpool need more than instinct from their record signing.

Iraola's Possession Problem Is Isak's Problem Too

Here's where the betting angle gets really sharp. Iraola built his reputation at Bournemouth on counter-pressing, transitions and being dangerous with less of the ball. His Cherries won just four of 19 league games in which they had more possession than the opposition. They won nine of the other 19. They never once won a game when their possession exceeded 58.8%.

Now he's at a club that will dominate the ball in almost every Premier League game they play. Sixty percent against Newcastle, seventy percent against Forest. Both ended 2-2. Liverpool are yet to be ahead in the league this season.

Isak thrived at Newcastle precisely because everything ran through him in transition. The midfield trusted him, knew his runs, and fed him in space. At Liverpool, that relationship doesn't exist yet and the system is almost the opposite of what gave Isak his best football. Asking a natural counter-attacking striker to lead the line in a possession-heavy side that can't yet create good chances from that possession is a recipe for exactly what we're seeing.

With Hugo Ekitike also out injured, Liverpool have no reliable back-up plan either. That doubles the pressure on Isak and doubles the risk for anyone backing Liverpool to win games at short prices.

What This Means If You're Betting on Liverpool

Liverpool's odds for the title were trimmed sharply in pre-season off the back of their transfer activity, but right now those prices look generous to the bookmakers rather than the punter. Two draws from two, both from behind, both with dominant possession and not enough to show for it.

For match betting, Liverpool are worth treating with caution at short odds until Iraola finds a shape that suits Isak. If they're asking him to hold up play and link in a slow-build system, they're wasting him. If they can find even glimpses of the vertical, direct football he thrived on at St. James' Park, you'll see a very different player.

Over 2.5 goals in Liverpool matches looks like a sensible angle for now. They're conceding, they're not keeping their opponents quiet, and Iraola is still clearly working out how to make his system work at this level with this squad. Both teams to score has landed in both of their opening fixtures.

Our Read on Where This Goes

Iraola is a smart coach and the players are there. We're not writing Liverpool off for a title challenge, but we are saying their price should be longer than it is right now given the very visible tactical issues.

Isak will come good. A full pre-season, a World Cup with Sweden where he looked sharp, and the goal against Forest all point to a player ready to deliver. The question is whether Iraola adapts his system to put Isak at the centre of it, or keeps asking the striker to adapt to a style that doesn't suit him. The manager has to make that call fast.

Until he does, back Liverpool with caution. And if you're building an accumulator this weekend, there are safer foundations than a side still searching for their first lead of the season.