Joao Pedro Looks Built to Break Chelsea’s Number Nine Curse — Here’s Why We’re Backing Him

Thirty-one seconds. That's all it took for Joao Pedro to announce himself at Chelsea this season. A composed finish over Bernd Leno at Craven Cottage, in Xabi Alonso's very first game in charge, and suddenly the most talked-about shirt in west London looks a lot less cursed.

For bettors paying attention, this is a storyline worth following closely.

The Curse That Has Haunted Chelsea Since 2004

It sounds like folklore, but the numbers back it up. Since Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink left Stamford Bridge in 2004, no Chelsea striker wearing the number nine has managed to hold down the shirt and perform at a consistently high level. Romelu Lukaku, Alvaro Morata, Gonzalo Higuain, Radamel Falcao, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang — all big names, all disappointments, all gone quickly.

The most recent occupant before Joao Pedro was Liam Delap, who managed one Premier League goal and is now reportedly heading out on loan. The shirt has become something of a poisoned chalice, and Chelsea supporters have quietly dreaded seeing it handed out each summer.

Joao Pedro has been given it, a new contract until 2034, and improved wages. Chelsea are all in.

Why This Time Feels Different

The players who failed in that shirt largely arrived with big reputations but without the mentality or physical readiness to carry Chelsea's attack. Joao Pedro's story is built the other way around.

He grew up without a present father, moved nine hours from home as a teenager, was told he wasn't strong enough to make it, and responded by hiring a personal trainer with money his mother could barely afford. He used the Covid lockdown to add eight kilograms of muscle. He arrived at Chelsea mid-pre-season, joined the Club World Cup squad days later, and scored in both the semi-final and the final.

Last season, despite Chelsea finishing 10th and missing Europe entirely, he hit 20 goals in all competitions. That made him the first Chelsea striker to reach that mark since Diego Costa nine years earlier. He also won the club's player of the season award, gave more interviews than any other player during a difficult campaign, and signed a new contract rather than pushing for a move.

This is not the profile of a player who cracks under pressure.

What the Betting Angles Look Like

With Xabi Alonso now in the dugout and a front three of Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer and club-record signing Morgan Rogers combining on matchday one, Chelsea's attacking setup looks genuinely dangerous. Rogers is already drawing comparisons to some of the more creative wide forwards in the league, Palmer is arguably the most clinical midfielder in England, and Joao Pedro offers a physical presence with genuine finishing quality.

For accumulators, Chelsea are worth including in matches where they are playing at home or against sides who defend deep and invite pressure. Joao Pedro's ability to hold the ball up and link play means he contributes to chances as much as he finishes them. Anytime scorer markets look attractive on him in bigger fixtures, particularly given his record of scoring in high-stakes games.

For those looking at golden boot or top scorer markets, 20 goals last season in a team that finished 10th is a strong baseline. In a Chelsea side that now looks more organised under Alonso and has stronger attacking pieces around Joao Pedro, pushing that number into the mid-twenties is a realistic expectation. At current odds, there is value there if the team hits its stride early.

We'd also be watching the Chelsea to score first markets. That opening goal against Fulham came in under a minute. This front three has directness from the first whistle, and Alonso's teams historically press high and create early opportunities.

Our Read on the Season Ahead

Joao Pedro believes none of this is about shirt numbers, and frankly, we agree with him. The curse was never about superstition. It was about Chelsea signing the wrong type of striker for the wrong reasons and paying the price. Joao Pedro is a different case entirely.

He's 24, he's built for the Premier League, and he's got the backing of a new manager, a club-record attacking partner, and a support network that has kept him grounded through everything. Eight goals in seven pre-season games before opening the league campaign in 31 seconds is not a coincidence.

The Chelsea number nine curse looks very much like it has met its match.