Kovacic’s Make-or-Break Season at City and What It Means for Maresca’s Midfield

Mateo Kovacic says Man City count on him. Whether that confidence is fully justified is a much more complicated question.

The Croatian midfielder has entered the final year of his contract at the Etihad and hasn't been offered a renewal. Juventus and Inter Milan are both circling. And the manager's response when asked about his future was, to put it politely, far from a ringing endorsement. Enzo Maresca essentially said he'd work with whoever is in front of him. That's not the same as saying Kovacic is in his plans.

What Kovacic Actually Brings to the Table

Let's not forget what this player is capable of when fit. Kovacic is a genuinely elite ball-carrier at the top of his technical game, the kind of midfielder who makes a team tick without always grabbing the headlines. The problem is the 'when fit' part.

He played just nine times last season. Achilles and ankle issues wrecked his campaign before it really got started. At 32 and entering a contract year, his body is now a genuine question mark, and that's not something you can ignore when assessing his value to Man City this season.

He got 45 minutes in the pre-season friendly against Inter and looked decent. But 45 minutes of pre-season football against a team he knows inside out is a long way from being a reliable Premier League starter.

The Rodri Absence Opens a Real Door

Here's where it gets interesting from a betting angle. Rodri is recovering from back surgery and looks set to miss a significant chunk of the early season. That absence creates a genuine opportunity for Kovacic, and he knows it.

He's been upfront about it, saying he's played with and without Rodri and can fill that role. We'd take that seriously. Kovacic at his best is one of the best Rodri deputies in world football. He reads the game well, he presses intelligently, and he keeps the ball moving in tight spaces. If he can stay fit through August and September, he becomes a much more relevant figure in Man City's season than most are expecting right now.

The wider midfield competition is fierce though. Tijjani Reijnders is pushing hard, Nico Gonzalez adds another option, and then there's Elliot Anderson, the £116m signing from Nottingham Forest who isn't even back from his World Cup holiday yet. When Anderson does arrive, the pressure on every other City midfielder ratchets up significantly.

Anderson Changes Everything

Spending £116m on a central midfielder sends a very clear message about who Maresca sees as central to his plans going forward. Anderson is 23, physical, tireless, and comes off the back of a breakout season where he played every single Premier League game for Forest. He's the present and future of this City midfield.

Kovacic was complimentary about the signing, which is either genuine team spirit or a man reading the room. Either way, the arrival of Anderson is the single biggest factor shaping Kovacic's future at the club.

Man City's title odds this season will be heavily influenced by midfield stability. Lose Rodri for weeks and fail to replace him with something close to equal quality and the points start slipping. Bookmakers will be watching the Kovacic situation closely because a fit, settled Croatian in that holding role keeps City's defensive structure intact and their attacking transitions sharp.

Our Read on Kovacic and City's Midfield

We think Kovacic plays his way into the team during the Rodri absence, puts together a solid enough run of games to earn a short contract extension, and then gradually gives way to Anderson as the season progresses. It's a transition year for him, not a defining one.

For punters, the smarter angle here isn't betting on Kovacic individually. It's factoring the midfield depth into your Man City season bets. A fully fit midfield with Anderson settled and Rodri back after Christmas makes City title favourites worth backing. An injury-disrupted engine room, with Kovacic pushed beyond his current limits, is where their campaign could quietly unravel.

City fans will be hoping the player is right that the club counts on him. Right now, what they really need is for his ankles to hold up.