Martinez Alone Won’t Fix Chelsea: Why Alonso’s Side Are a Punter’s Nightmare Right Now

Chelsea won 4-3 against Brighton. Before that, they won 3-2 at Fulham. Seven goals scored, five conceded, zero clean sheets across two Premier League games. If you're trying to back Chelsea to win tidy and controlled matches this season, you might want to hold off for a while.

Emiliano Martinez's arrival was supposed to change the defensive story at Stamford Bridge. And maybe eventually it will. But five hours between his signing being announced and him walking out to make his debut doesn't leave much room for settling in.

The Martinez Upgrade Is Real, But It Won't Fix Everything

Let's be fair to the goalkeeper. None of the three goals Chelsea conceded against Brighton were really on him. Robert Sanchez, by contrast, was directly blamed for at least one goal in the Fulham win earlier in the week. On that front alone, the upgrade is clear.

Martinez is a two-time FIFA Best Goalkeeper winner. He was part of Argentina's World Cup-winning squad in 2022 and helped Aston Villa win the Europa League in May. His underlying numbers from last season, save percentage, goals prevented relative to shot quality, and passing accuracy, all sit above what Sanchez produced. The signing makes sense.

But a goalkeeper doesn't win you the ball back in midfield. He doesn't stop your centre-backs from looking exposed when there's no screen in front of them. And right now, Chelsea's problems run much deeper than who's standing between the posts.

The Midfield Crisis Nobody Is Talking About Enough

Chelsea recorded 25.9% possession against Brighton. That is not a typo. Across all of Xabi Alonso's games as a manager, at Chelsea, Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, that is his lowest possession figure. A side built to play progressive, controlled football completed just 146 passes in a Premier League game, which is reportedly the fewest Chelsea have recorded since records began in 2003.

Why? Because their midfield is in chaos. Enzo Fernandez is effectively exiled from the squad as Manchester City circle with a bid expected to top £120m. Moises Caicedo lasted 11 minutes as a substitute before being forced off injured. Jordan Henderson is unavailable. Valentin Barco isn't trusted to start. That left Malo Gusto and Romeo Lavia, a right-back and a player still building match fitness, starting as a central midfield partnership.

Alonso has also switched to a back three this season, which demands disciplined press-resistance and midfield cover to protect the wider centre-backs. Without Caicedo or Fernandez doing that dirty work, Wesley Fofana, Maxence Lacroix and Levi Colwill were frequently exposed. You can't patch that with a goalkeeper, no matter how good he is.

Chelsea are also exploring a move for Monaco midfielder Lamine Camara. If that deal gets done before the transfer deadline, the picture changes. If it doesn't, Alonso faces a genuine crisis in the engine room.

What This Means for Betting on Chelsea Right Now

Chelsea have gone 18 Premier League games without a clean sheet. That is their longest run since the 1960s. For punters, that stat should be front of mind before backing them in any match where the clean sheet is part of the value.

Both teams to score looks almost nailed on whenever Chelsea play right now. Their attack is electric. Cole Palmer, Joao Pedro and the front three in general are creating chances at will, which is why they've managed a perfect record despite the defensive chaos. But backing them to win to nil, or expecting a tidy margin of victory, feels like a poor bet until the midfield is sorted and Martinez has had more than 48 hours to bed in.

The Arsenal trip coming up is a serious test. Arsenal will punish poor ball retention far more ruthlessly than Brighton did. If Chelsea's midfield remains as thin as it was this weekend, we'd expect goals at both ends again, and Alonso's side to be pushed far harder than a 4-3 scoreline suggests they were against Brighton.

In the Premier League title race, Chelsea have the attacking quality to be relevant. Alonso clearly has a vision. But right now, they're chaotic in a way that makes them hard to trust as a structured betting proposition.

Martinez is a good signing. Chelsea just need about four or five more of them.