Modric’s Shame Says It All: Croatia Are in Freefall and the Betting Markets Know It

Luka Modric has seen everything in football. World Cup finals, Champions League glory, decades at the top of the game. So when a man with 205 international caps says he feels ashamed for the first time in 20 years, you take notice. Croatia's 7-0 home defeat to England wasn't just a bad result. It was a collapse that has exposed something genuinely broken at the heart of this team.

When 5-0 at Half-Time Tells the Whole Story

Modric was hauled off in the 57th minute with Croatia already five goals down. Five. At home. In Rijeka. Against a side they had beaten to top the group just a few weeks earlier. The scoreline wasn't flattering England either. Kane, Bellingham, Gordon, Saka twice, Rogers. Croatia didn't just lose, they disintegrated.

What makes this worse is the context. Croatia came into this match level on points with England, with a genuine chance to go top of Nations League Group A3. Instead, they gifted Thomas Tuchel's side the kind of result that changes the mood of an entire campaign. For England, this is momentum. For Croatia, it's a crisis.

A Squad Running on Reputation Alone

Let's be honest about what Croatia are right now. They're a side that has lived off the fumes of their 2018 and 2022 World Cup runs for years. Modric is 41. The generation that carried them to back-to-back podium finishes at the World Cup is either gone or fading fast. Slaven Bilic came back to manage this group with some goodwill attached, and a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic gave the impression things might click again.

They didn't. A 4-1 defeat to Spain and now a 7-0 hammering at home tells a very different story. Croatia are third in the group, sitting on three points, with Spain still to host on Tuesday. The Nations League relegation zone is creeping closer, and there is very little in the squad to suggest they can stop the slide.

Modric himself admitted England are the better team right now. That's not the kind of thing he says lightly. When the captain is publicly questioning the side's desire, aggression and togetherness, you have a problem that a tactical tweak won't fix.

What This Means for the Betting Markets

Croatia host Spain in Split on Tuesday, and from a betting perspective, we'd be fading Croatia hard here. Spain are world champions and showed in their 4-1 win earlier in the group that this Croatian side simply don't have the defensive structure to live with quality opposition. Croatia's expected goals against in their last two defeats has been alarming, and the underlying numbers don't offer any comfort.

For the outright group winner market, England now look extremely well placed and worth backing if you haven't already. They sit top of Group A3 with a superior goal difference that borders on the ridiculous. Croatia's remaining schedule includes England away in November and Spain at home before that. Both of those look like further points dropped.

The relegation play-off place in League A is a market worth watching too. Croatia are in real danger of finishing bottom of this group, and at current odds, backing them to be involved in relegation action before the campaign ends looks like it carries genuine value. Three points from four games, with Spain and England still to face, makes survival in the top tier far from guaranteed.

Our Call

Croatia are not the team they were. That's the uncomfortable truth that Saturday night made impossible to ignore. Modric called it a catastrophic night, and we'd go further. It looks like the end of an era playing out in real time, and the Nations League table is starting to reflect that brutal reality.

Back England to win the group. Consider Croatia for the relegation play-off market. And when Croatia host Spain on Tuesday, don't expect a redemption story. Expect Spain to win comfortably, because this Croatia side right now has the look of a team that has genuinely lost the plot.