Russell Martin’s Leicester Project Is a Gamble Worth Watching Closely

Leicester City are a club in genuine crisis. One win in 11 league matches, a player exodus, ownership uncertainty and a new manager who's already dividing opinion. If you're looking for a team that could go either way this season, the Foxes are exactly that.

From Premier League Champions to League One Chaos

Ten years ago, Leicester were celebrating one of the greatest sporting upsets in history. A 5000-1 shot to win the Premier League, and they did it. Now they're playing League One football for the first time since 2009, and they've started with a draw at Notts County and a 2-1 home defeat to Burton Albion.

That Burton defeat alone triggered a wave of bets on Leicester to suffer a third successive relegation. Their odds of dropping into League Two have since been cut to 33-1, which sounds generous until you watch 73% possession end in a home defeat to a side like Burton. The football on the pitch isn't matching the ambition on the training ground, and that gap matters in a division that rewards directness and grit over patient build-up play.

The backdrop off the pitch makes things worse. Thai owners King Power are looking to sell after 16 years in charge, and while no official announcement has come, an eight-page sales booklet has been circulating to attract buyers. The accounts tell their own grim story, with losses of nearly £100m in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, a six-point deduction already confirmed for 2025-26, and a squad still carrying Premier League wages.

The Russell Martin Question

Russell Martin is the man tasked with stopping the bleeding. The 40-year-old signed a three-year contract in June, which tells you the club are committed to a rebuild rather than a quick fix. The issue is that his track record since taking Southampton to the Premier League through the play-offs in 2024 has been alarming. Two league wins across his spells at Southampton and Rangers, with the Rangers job lasting just 123 days before he was sacked.

His philosophy is built around possession, pressing and playing out from the back. It worked at MK Dons, where he built his reputation. It worked well enough at Swansea to earn him the Southampton job. But in League One, with a squad full of players on Premier League contracts who weren't signed for this level, the fit looks uncomfortable right now.

Fan sentiment is clear. The 'tippy tappy' label is being thrown around, and supporters who've watched Brendan Rodgers, Enzo Maresca and Marti Cifuentes all try versions of possession football with mixed results are understandably sceptical. The question isn't whether Martin can play this way. It's whether he has players who can execute it against sides happy to sit deep and hit on the break.

One positive worth clinging to is the 3-1 Carabao Cup defeat to Ipswich Town. Losing to Premier League opposition isn't embarrassing, and Martin saw enough to suggest his young squad is capable of more. He's right that the squad is in transition, with big sales like Abdul Fatawu to Ipswich and 17-year-old Jeremy Monga to Manchester City generating funds while the window is still open. The arrival of 19-year-old Finnish defender Ilari Kangasniemi, a 6'6" ball-playing centre-back, shows the project Martin has in mind. Kangasniemi is raw but exactly the kind of profile Martin wants to build around.

The Betting Angles on Leicester This Season

From a betting perspective, Leicester are one of the most interesting teams to monitor in League One right now. Here's our read on the key markets.

On the Leicester relegation odds at 33-1, we think that price is likely to shorten if there's no improvement in the next four to six weeks. Backing it now as a speculative flutter is possible, but we wouldn't chase it hard. This squad has too much quality to go down twice more, even in its current state.

For match betting, the value right now is in fading Leicester in away fixtures where they're expected to dominate possession. Sides who set up to absorb and counter are exactly the type to exploit their current defensive fragility, as Burton showed. Backing the draw or backing the opponent at home when they face Leicester in the next few weeks looks the sharper play until the squad settles.

If Martin gets the window business right before it closes and the young squad starts finding rhythm, the promotion market becomes worth a look around mid-October. We'd wait before touching that. There's too much noise in the first few weeks to call it either way.

Our Read on Where This Is Heading

Leicester won't go down again. We're fairly confident on that. The squad, even in its current shape, has enough individual quality to avoid a League Two spiral, and the six-point deduction that kicks in for 2025-26 is a problem for another day.

What's less certain is whether Martin survives long enough to get this project off the ground. The pressure is already building after four competitive games. If Leicester lose at MK Dons this weekend, a trip to the ground where Martin first made his name, the calls for his head will grow louder very quickly. A club in this much chaos can't afford a prolonged bad run, and the next three fixtures will tell us a lot about whether this is just a slow start or something more serious.

The story of Leicester City right now is part tragedy, part soap opera and part genuine sporting puzzle. For bettors, it's a situation worth watching closely rather than diving into. The picture will be clearer by late September.